The day of reckoning

Over the years and in particular since the last financial crisis, I have always maintained that the crisis would return and the stock market would collapse. The natural progression of the stock market is a reflection of social mood and it follows an Elliott wave pattern. This pattern is terminal which is telling us the … Continue Reading

Upside in the stock market is limited

The stock market has entered a new phase, one which can be described as sideways. I have talked about this pattern many times, when the upside is limited and the stock market makes new highs, there will be an increasing number of sellers. This means the rally will fail to extend and profit taking will … Continue Reading

Prepare for deflation, act now

The stock market rally extended this week following last week very weak nonfarm payrolls. The message from the job report was similar to that from the ADP employment report, employment in the US is falling sharply. We already knew that many sectors of the economy were slowing but this was not reflected in the job … Continue Reading

Stock markets turned down as I predicted

You will recall the extreme optimism about many things from a US-China trade deal to the dovish Fed at the end of April. This extreme in bullish sentiment was a warning the trend would turn down (as recorded by my trend reversal indicator), that is why I expected a stock market decline. The S&P 500 … Continue Reading

Stock market rebound won’t last

I was talking about the dead cat bounce, the rally to 2800 in the S&P 500. This is a bear market and in a bear market good news provides an opportunity to go short. The good news came from China, trade talks between US and China are going well according to president Trump. This is … Continue Reading

All time highs near the end

Some new all time highs are more bullish than others, particularly in the early parts of the bull market. But when the new all-time highs occur during a period of extreme optimism you know the end is near…read more